The High Council of Public Finance deems 2026 growth difficult to achieve

The High Council of Public Finances considers the growth forecast of +0.5% adopted by the Government for 2026 to be “difficult to achieve” and estimates that an increase of 0.3% would be “more plausible.” This warning appears in opinion no. HCFP-2026-6 of November 2, 2026, issued on the year-end budget bill (PLFG) for 2026 and published in the JORF no. 0259 of November 5, 2026 under NOR HCFX2629262V.

A late referral based on an unchanged scenario

The High Council was referred by the Government on October 27, 2026, in application of Article 61-V of Organic Law No. 2001-692 of August 1, 2001, relating to finance laws, and regrets that the deadline for submitting its opinion was “reduced to six days,” whereas the practice is to align it with the seven days applicable to the main financial texts.

The macroeconomic scenario of the PLFG is identical to that of the finance bill (PLF) and the social security financing bill (PLFSS) for 2027, on which the High Council had issued an opinion on September 25 (HCFP-2026-5) describing these forecasts as plausible. It notes that uncertainties “have since strengthened in an unfavorable direction.”

Growth no longer corresponds to a central forecast

According to INSEE, the first estimate of the accounts for the third quarter of 2026, published on October 30, reports a 0.1% decline in activity, bringing the annual growth achievement to 0.2%. Economic institutes were already projecting 0.4% in October, compared to 0.5% for the Government, which had still maintained 1.0% in the initial finance law.

The components of the scenario are also under pressure:

• private investment has been continuously declining since the end of 2025, making the government forecast “almost unattainable” without a revision of past data;
• the consumption achievement at the end of September is only 0.3%, compared to the 0.4% forecast;
• exports declined in the third quarter, despite an expected rebound in naval and aeronautical deliveries.

The High Council also notes that energy price and rate assumptions have not been updated: the barrel of Brent was around 115 dollars at the end of October compared to a gradual decline toward 90 dollars anticipated, gas stands near €100/MWh compared to an assumption under €70, and the ten-year bond rate has reached approximately 4.9% compared to the 4.2% expected.

A weakened deficit, underestimated inflation

The inflation forecast of 2.1% on an annual average for 2026 is judged “now too low, by one or two tenths,” while price increases exceeded 3.0% in September and October, reaching 3.4% year-on-year according to the preliminary estimate of October 30.

Regarding public finances, the public balance is maintained at −5.4 percentage points of GDP, or −€166.0 billion, but has deteriorated by €1.1 billion in amount compared to the 2027 PLF (Finance Bill). The excess interest on indexed bonds, underestimated by approximately €0.7 billion, would mechanically bring the forecast to −5.5 percentage points of GDP. The deficit would remain 0.4 percentage points of GDP higher than that recorded in the initial finance law, due to a shortfall in revenue and an excess expenditure of nearly €8 billion, notably in interest charges and unemployment benefits. Public debt would increase by 3.7 percentage points of GDP, to 119.4 points.

Net expenditure and European commitments

The Government forecasts an exceedance of the net expenditure growth ceiling, at +1.4% compared to the 1.2% recommended by the Council of the European Union in January 2025, which is 0.2 points above and €2.7 billion more than in the initial finance law. The High Council recalls that these expenditures “are manageable and little exposed to cyclical shocks.”

The forecast for compulsory levies, at €1,338.3 billion, is conversely deemed “overall plausible,” subject to the uncertain yield of new measures, estimated at €14.2 billion, including the €1.9 billion levy on the surplus of the Caisse nationale des industries électriques et gazières (CNIEG), conditional on the adoption of the PLFSS (Social Security Financing Bill) for 2027 before December 31.

The opinion finally specifies that the President of the High Council recused herself and did not participate in its drafting, in view of the functions she held as Minister for Action and Public Accounts until February 22, 2026.

A warning weighing on the entire 2027 budget

The High Council emphasizes that the now outdated nature of the scenario for the second half of 2026 “necessarily has consequences” on the assumptions adopted for 2027 in the draft finance and social security financing laws, about which it had already expressed reservations. For readers, the warning extends beyond the current fiscal year: the credibility of the trajectory to return the deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2029, and therefore the sustainability of the debt, relies on growth that the independent monitoring body now considers overestimated.

Source: Official Journal of the French Republic, JORF No. 0259 of November 5, 2026, opinion No. HCFP-2026-6 of November 2, 2026, NOR HCFX2629262V.