Ecuador updates 2027-2030 fiscal programming with surplus starting in 2028

The Ministry of Economic and Productive Development approved the update of the medium-term fiscal programming for the Non-Financial Public Sector and Social Security Entities for the 2027-2030 period, through Agreement No. MDEP-MDEP-2026-0032-A, signed on September 30, 2026, and published in the Second Supplement of the Official Registry No. 387 on Monday, October 12, 2026. The instrument establishes the mandatory framework for State revenues, expenditures, and indebtedness for the next four fiscal years and projects an overall deficit result in 2027, which becomes a surplus from 2028 onwards.

The agreement was signed by Minister Bernardo Antonio Cordovez Cereceda, appointed via Executive Decree No. 509 of September 28, 2026. It is based on Article 87 of the Organic Code of Planning and Public Finance (COPLAFIP), which mandates that multi-annual and annual fiscal programming be prepared before the submission of the General State Budget proforma and sent as an attachment to it, and on the General Regulations of COPLAFIP, which order its approval by April 30 and its update before September 30.

The immediate precedents are Agreement MEF-MEF-2025-0011-A of August 21, 2025, which approved the 2025-2029 programming, and Agreement MEF-MEF-2026-0009-A of April 29, 2026, which updated the 2026-2030 programming. The Undersecretariat of Fiscal Programming recommended the new update through technical report No. MDEP-SPF-DNPF-2026-018 of September 29, 2026, and the General Coordination of Legal Advice issued its report via Memorandum No. MDEP-CGAJ-2026-0794-M of September 30, 2026.

Revenues: higher tax collection and lower oil rents

The scenario forecasts that total revenues will grow from 54.193 billion dollars in 2027 to 59.312 billion in 2030, driven by non-oil collection, which rises from 38.054 to 43.766 billion. In contrast, oil revenues decrease from 16.139 to 15.546 billion over the same period.

• Tax revenues: 20.948 billion in 2027 and 24.540 billion in 2030.
• Income tax: from 7.122 to 8.340 billion.
• VAT: from 10.289 to 12.077 billion.
• Special Consumption Tax (ICE): from 813 to 934 million; tariffs, from 1.447 to 1.661 million.
• Social security contributions: from 7.038 to 7.973 billion.

Public spending and social benefits

Total spending increases from 54.564 billion dollars in 2027 to 57.818 billion in 2030. Permanent spending accounts for the largest portion, with 44.376 billion in the first year, while non-permanent spending goes from 10.188 to 10.814 billion.

• Salaries and wages: from 12.660 to 13.281 billion.
• Goods and services: 13.585 billion in 2027 and 13.266 billion in 2030.
• Interest: from 3.697 to 3.989 billion.
• Social security benefits: from 10.599 to 12.227 billion.
• Non-financial assets: from 3.599 to 4.170 billion.

Indebtedness and Global Result

Public financing decreases from 9,475 million dollars in 2027 to 3,400 million in 2030, with a sharp drop in domestic disbursements, which go from 4,174 to 114 million. Public debt amortization drops from 7,301 to 4,393 million, with domestic debt reducing from 3,152 to 708 million and external debt from 4,149 to 3,685 million.

The projected global result is -371 million in 2027, 492 million in 2028, 815 million in 2029, and 1,493 million in 2030, equivalent to -0.3%, 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.9% of GDP. Total revenue and financing, equal to total expenditures, amortizations, and other obligations, decreases from 63,683 to 62,727 million, from 44.6% to 39.7% of GDP.

Article 2 of the agreement provides that the updated programming will be subject to monitoring, evaluation, and updating by the governing body of public finances, and the Sole General Provision establishes its validity from the date of signing, without prejudice to its publication in the Official Registry.

Fiscal programming is the mandatory framework for formulating and executing the General State Budget and the Four-Year Budgetary Programming; therefore, its revenue, expenditure, and indebtedness targets condition national economic policy and the financing of all public services over the next four years.

Source: Official Registry, Second Supplement No. 387, Monday, October 12, 2026, Executive Branch, p. 2 (official reference: MDEP-MDEP-2026-0032-A).