Commission names Greece, Spain, Italy and Cyprus under migratory pressure for 2027

The European Commission has designated Greece, Spain, Italy and Cyprus as Member States under migratory pressure for the 2027 cycle, setting in motion solidarity and relocation obligations across the EU asylum system. The determination was adopted in Brussels on 6 November 2026 through Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/2522, issued under Article 11 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1351, and published in the Official Journal of the European Union of 11 November 2026. Fifteen further Member States are listed as being at risk of migratory pressure, and six face a significant migratory situation.

A twelve-month assessment with a Ceuta exception

Under Regulation (EU) 2024/1351 on asylum and migration management, the Commission must determine every year, by 15 October, which Member States are under migratory pressure, at risk of it, or facing a significant migratory situation. The assessment behind Decision (EU) 2026/2522 covers the period from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026 and rests on the European Annual Asylum and Migration Report, COM(2026) 835, together with the methodology set out in SWD(2025) 792.

The wider picture improved: illegal border crossings at the Union’s external border fell by 32%, applications for international protection by 16% and unauthorised movements by around 13%. The Commission nonetheless accepted a request from Spain to weigh developments outside the reporting window, namely the incident of 30-31 July 2026 that produced large-scale illegal arrivals to the autonomous city of Ceuta. For the significant-situation category, the cumulative period examined runs from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2026.

The four States under pressure

Annex I of the decision lists the Member States deemed to face disproportionate obligations relative to the overall Union situation:

• Greece: illegal border crossings dropped 23%, but it recorded the highest volume relative to GDP and population, with arrivals following search and rescue operations up 74%; more than half of Eastern Mediterranean arrivals were registered in Crete.
• Spain: about 20% of all illegal border crossings at Union level, third in search and rescue arrivals, applications down 22%, and fourth in absolute numbers.
• Italy: 42% of all persons disembarked in the Union after search and rescue operations, even though total disembarkations fell 33%.
• Cyprus: illegal border crossings down 34%, yet the second highest receiver of applications relative to GDP and population, with a strained return system.

Fifteen at risk, six in a significant situation

Annex II lists the Member States at risk: Belgium, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, France, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Finland. The Commission cites unauthorised secondary movements, temporary protection registrations and pressure along the Western Balkans and Eastern borders, including state-sponsored attempts to weaponise migration attributed to Russia and Belarus.

Annex III names Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland as facing a significant migratory situation, assessed over five years. The decision notes that 4.4 million people were benefiting from temporary protection in the Union as of 30 June 2026.

Solidarity rights and scrutiny of Italy

States under pressure gain access to the Annual Solidarity Pool under Article 57 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1351, and States at risk obtain priority access to the Permanent EU Migration Support Toolbox. Those in a significant situation may request full or partial deduction of their solidarity contributions under Article 62.

The decision also keeps Italy under monitoring. Italy suspended receiving transfers in December 2022; the Court of Justice of the European Union held in its judgment of 19 December 2024 in Joined Cases C-185/24 and C-189/24, confirmed on 5 March 2026, that a responsible State cannot unilaterally discharge itself. Italy adopted a new administrative letter on 29 October 2026 resuming transfers since 12 June 2026, subject to case-by-case assessment. The Commission will gather information at least every three months and may escalate the matter to the High-Level Solidarity Forum and the Council.

The decision enters into force on the twentieth day after publication and applies from 1 January 2027. Denmark is not bound by it, while Ireland participates following Commission Decision (EU) 2024/2088. It succeeds Implementing Decision (EU) 2025/2323 of 11 November 2025.

For readers, the designation is the legal switch that turns solidarity from pledge into obligation: from the first day of 2027, the four listed States can draw on relocation and financial support, while the fifteen at-risk States see the terms of their own contributions and reception burdens formally recognised for the coming year.

Source: Official Journal of the European Union, L 2026/2522, 11 November 2026, notices (official reference: Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/2522, ELI: dec_impl/2026/2522/oj).