National red alert for El Niño declared throughout Ecuador

The National Secretariat for Risk Management (SNGR) declared a red alert throughout the national territory due to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, according to Resolution No. SNGR-238-2026, signed on August 29, 2026, in the Samborondón canton by Mgs. Carolina Alejandra Lozano Haro, National Secretary for Risk Management. The measure was published in the Third Supplement No. 369 of the Official Registry, on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, on page 45.

The declaration is based on Technical Report No. SNGR-SGIAR-2026-008, dated August 28, 2026, and Executive Technical Report ERFEN No. 007-2026, through which the National Committee for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (CN-ERFEN) officially determined the presence of the event in the country. Pursuant to Article 69 of the General Regulations to the Organic Law for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk, the red level corresponds to an “ongoing adverse event.”

Escalation of the alert

The resolution extends the alert, which was already in effect in prioritized areas, to the entire country. The process escalated in three phases during 2026:

• Yellow alert (May 18, 2026, Resolution No. SNGR-117-2026): areas up to 1,500 masl, in 17 provinces, 143 cantons, and 491 parishes.
• Orange alert (July 20, 2026, Resolution No. SNGR-193-2026): change from yellow to orange in the same prioritized areas.
• Red alert (August 29, 2026, Resolution No. SNGR-238-2026): extension to the entire national territory.

Oceanic conditions and outlook

The technical report reports a sustained strengthening of the event. The weekly sea surface temperature anomaly reaches approximately +4.0 °C in the Niño 1+2 region and +2.6 °C in Niño 3.4, with anomalies of +2 to +3 °C between the mainland coast and the Galápagos Islands. Sea level maintains positive anomalies between +28 and +33 cm at coastal stations.

According to the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), dated August 13, 2026, El Niño will continue to strengthen until the end of 2026. For the October–December 2026 quarter, there is an estimated 69% probability of reaching an event of historical magnitude, exceeding those recorded since 1950.

Historical impact and measures

The document recalls that in previous episodes, the phenomenon compromised multiple river basins: 13 in 1972-73, 46 in 1982-83, and 40 in 1997-98. Of the 56 basins analyzed, 36 have been recurrently flooded and 7 show chronic recurrence: Guayas, Taura, Cañar, San Pablo, Naranjal, Santa Rosa, and Arenillas.

The resolution provides, among other measures, for the activation of provincial and cantonal Emergency Operations Committees (COE), the execution of preventive evacuations, the mobilization of resources and machinery at critical points of the road network, the reinforcement of hydrometeorological monitoring by the CN-ERFEN, and the implementation of preventive communication strategies aimed at the population.

The national red alert implies the activation of emergency protocols at all levels of government and affects the entire Ecuadorian population, which must adhere to self-protection measures and the guidelines of the authorities in the face of a climatic event that, according to official forecasts, could reach an intensity unprecedented since 1950.

Source: Official Registry of Ecuador, Third Supplement No. 369, September 15, 2026, p. 45 (official reference: Resolution No. SNGR-238-2026).